Double down on $XX
Trading Diary #13
YTD Track Record
I’ve been working hard on offering the best research to my readers. I genuinely believe that is possible, but I need your help.
Giving feedback is the best way to help me organize my schedule. So, please help me by answering this form.
Since I’m not collecting any personal information in this form, please, feel free to contact me at email@example.com with any suggestions, especially complaints.
I love readers complaining about my writing. It allows me to improve.
From Previous Weeks
[Keep, May 2nd]
You probably know that I’m bull on China as well . However, my exposure to the country is still small. I’m not sure about the timing, but we’re researching more before increasing the exposure. Considering that I don’t have any cash left, I’ll have to sell something to improve the Chinese exposure, so that requires being conservative for not screwing the compounding.
[Keep, May 2nd] I’m getting increasingly bull on Oil at the current prices. There is only a marginal sign of demand destruction, even though supply constraints have increased. We mentioned it in a Food for Thought edition, but releasing SPR inventory is stupid and non-sense. So instead, we proposed an alternative solution that would require support from the current administration. Unfortunately, our base case is that the current administration will let the market balance on demand destruction and, therefore, manufacturing job losses.
Bull, XLE @76.35 (+16%)
[Keep, May 9th] Although I’m still tactically bearish on tech stocks, we anticipated most of MercadoLibre’s extraordinary earnings and added heavily to our position. So in relative terms, Meli should outperform tech stocks. In my personal account, however, the leverage is low.
Bull Ratio MELI / XLK @6.60 (-13.3%)
[Keep, May 9th] Bull RRRP3 @44.00 (11.3%): I wanna keep it simple. I’m long RRRP, but not paying attention to EWZ anymore.
[Keep, May 22nd] We wrote about this trade in this Food for Thought edition, but it sounds good owning cyclical stocks vs. defensive. Since I found no ETF that matched the basked I used to trade, the closest one was the Value ETF (IWN). On the short side, a consumer staple is a straightforward call. So, the final trade is long IWN and short KXI. Sizing on this one was a bit tricky. On fundamental, the upside looks limited, though the technical sucks. However, we believe this earnings season may prove a catalyst for the trade, so we decided on a 10% exposure with an 8% stop loss.
Bull Ratio IWN/KXI @2.48 (2%)
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Giro's Newsletter to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.